The Jobless Recovery Scenario
The jobless recovery scenario goes like this. (1) During a recovery (as at all other times) the basic labour market identity holds: the number of people employed depends on overall demand and...
View ArticleTechnology In Jobless Recovery
The technology-update dynamics (see previous post) is central to the argument that the current crisis will finish with a jobless recovery, similar to the years after the 2001 dot.com bubble burst.The...
View ArticleTaking Count
In academia - unlike in my previous profession - one might occasionally be asked to check out his own previous forecasts. So here it is: a qualitative revisiting my global economics forecasts of the...
View ArticleDiscriminating Against Women in the Job Market
(off global economics)At the apropos of an FT article about the small rise of the gender pay gap in Britain, I thought I would share an anecdote. After my years in Cambridge I took a gap year from...
View ArticleG20 In Yet Another Fake Action
Is that very funny how the G20 is doing it again? As the crisis unfolded, some 'out of line' people suggested that banks should perhaps be treated as utilities. They were wiped off the table. Now,...
View ArticleGlobal Economics’ Disappointment In Barack Obama
Once upon a time there lived a very very large dragon. This beast was the scariest of all creatures ever lived. It was taller than a house, and its mouth was big enough to gobble down six little...
View ArticleReinventing the BRICs Amidst The Global Recovery
The silly talk is returning about emerging markets as the global economy is turning into a full-blown recovery mode. In particular, there is a renewed hype about the non-existent group formed by...
View ArticleGlobal Policy Options Open Up Again
(Two boats, a lot of waves, and one Mount Fuji)There’s a new law of global economics: the deeper you are in a crisis, the emptier the policy tool box becomes. And the emptier the policy toolbox is,...
View ArticleGlobal Economics And Global Government
(Funny how an idea that looked so strange and impossible even a few years ago, is self evident now.) A very odd thing is going on in the world. The rise of the global market led to unprecedented...
View ArticleGlobal Economics On Ecological Diversity
(Two notes on diversity.) Note one. The we are making a mistake by focusing on carbon. Carbon is easy. The claim that the carbon problem, or in general the problem of global warming, is easily solved...
View ArticleNature's Planetary Boundaries
A fantastic Nature page on Global Boundaries. The only missing item is the human society and global economics... This Nature publication is a great overview of the boundaries that humanity should not...
View ArticleThe Honey Trap
(Notes from the Papuan Highlands, from about a year ago) Imagine that globalisation had turned out differently. It had been not European cultures that somehow got spread and dominated the world, in...
View ArticleCopenhagen, Barack Obama, and Global Economics
"Obama damps hopes for final treaty on climate change at Copenhagen" Grrrrrr. The week starts with yet more global procrastination. This blog has had a critical, but hopeful attitude towards Barack...
View ArticleRecovery Doubts
(The Green-Shoot Worm And The Abracadabra Herd) It is almost as interesting to follow the way the commentators of the global economy keep moving in odd herds, as it is to watch this wannabe recovery...
View ArticleObama Freeze
(The past two months I have been working on some exceptionally interesting problems, and hence the absence from the blog. Here is one to the 'dear readers' who bugged me to return.) Fascinating it is...
View ArticleObama’s Global Health Care Impact
Finally Obama might have some global consequences... The crisis offered hope about the global reform. Although we are still struggling with understanding how the global economy works, the eventual...
View ArticleObama’s health reform success hands global financial regulation to Europe
And now onto financial regulation? Europe is poised to win from stalemate of the US Senate. The fallout from the success of the US health care reform bill might just determine the fate of the emerging...
View ArticleKenya on the edge
(Report from my friend, Balazs Szendroi) "Knowledge Is Power"(Motto painted on the walls of thousands of schools around rural Kenya) "In case of accident, do not admit liability"(Advice printed on all...
View ArticleThe Three-Layered Chess Box
A central question of global economics concerns the architecture of policy institutions. If you regard the global socio-economic system as a single unit -- a not entirely unreasonable assumption,...
View ArticleA Tragedy Of The Global Policy Commons
Two global economics observations about the ineptitude of economic policy. First, we knew about the credit crunch for at least a 15-18 months before the September 2008 meltdown. Yet, the crisis was...
View ArticleThe Ancient Future of Finance
(Book review of ‘The Future of Finance. The LSE Report’ -- you can download it here) Hmm. What a perfect moment! An near-perfect crisis over (well, just, and perhaps), and one very much triggered and...
View ArticleApropos Quantitative Easing
What passes these days as monetary policy in the US and in the Eurozone is going to be a complete disaster for developing countries. Just think for a second what the taboos are is that emerging...
View ArticleThe Long Minute of the Global Economy
Th global economy's outlook: as if the 24 months since the summer of 2009 have flown by in one minute. Not much changed. The future of the global economy is as uncertain as it was 2 years ago. (Would...
View ArticleWhat ho Global Economics!
This post argues (again) that there is no way ahead for the global economy without theoretical innovation. The trouble is that the wave of innovations that has been sparked by the 2008 meltdown, still...
View ArticleAll sweet Zurich, you darling!
If you're looking for an example for the kind of global economic uncertainty we live in, the Swiss central banks announcement about plans to pack the Swiss Franc to the Euro must be a perfect one....
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